ALDS: Rays vs Rangers

Today I will be breaking down the four divisional series and giving my predictions on the winners. I will start with the Texas Rangers against the Tampa Bay Rays. Obviously if you look at the intangible factor of momentum, Tampa Bay has the advantage. However, most of the time when the playoffs start, everything starts from scratch. For that reason, I will do a breakdown of each team to help me determine the winner.

Catchers

Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR John Jaso TBR 5 26 27 1 0.244 0.224 0.298 0.354 0.652 0.288 0.5 Mike Napoli TX 30 72 75 4 0.344 0.320 0.414 0.631 1.045 0.444 5.6 Offensively, the advantage definitely goes to Mike Napoli. Jaso hit for a very good average year, but not so in 2011. Texas wins this matchup hands-down.

Advantage: Texas

 First Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Casey Kotchman	TBR	10	44	48	2	0.335	0.306	0.378	0.422	0.800	0.351	2.8
Michael Young	TX	11	88	106	6	0.367	0.338	0.380	0.474	0.854	0.369	3.8

This matchup is a lot closer than the catchers. What we have here is two players who had great bounce-back years, so either one could break down in the playoffs. I'll give the advantage to Texas solely because of the flexibility Young gives them with his ability to play second, third, and shortstop.

Advantage: Texas

Second Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Ben Zobrist	TBR	20	99	91	19	0.310	0.269	0.353	0.469	0.822	0.360	6.6
Ian Kinsler	TX	32	121	77	30	0.243	0.255	0.355	0.477	0.832	0.370	7.7

This is another close matchup but again the advantage has to go to Texas. Similarly to Michael Young, though, Zobrist gives Tampa a lot of flexibility around the field.

Third Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Evan Longoria	TBR	31	78	99	3	0.239	0.244	0.355	0.495	0.850	0.365	6.1
Adrian Beltre	TX	32	82	105	1	0.273	0.296	0.331	0.561	0.892	0.379	5.7

This is finally one that goes Tampa Bay's way. Beltre and Longoria's counting statistics are very similar. The difference in offense boils down to Beltre's batting average vs Longoria's walk-rate and ability to get on base. One key area to look at is the players' BABIPS. Adrian's is in-line with his career average so his numbers should continue into the postseason. Longoria's, however, is way down from his career average of .301 which points to bad luck. If he can continue his hot-hitting to end the season, he could be the star for Tampa Bay.

Advantage: Tampa

Shortstop

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Sean Rodriguez	TBR	8	45	36	11	0.268	0.223	0.323	0.357	0.680	0.303	2.3
Elvis Andrus	TX	5	96	60	37	0.312	0.279	0.347	0.361	0.708	0.323	4.5

Texas is back to its domination. Rodriguez was pegged for a big year by a lot of analysts but failed to produce. Andrus continued his slick-fielding but is developing into a good big-league hitter also. His OBP and speed on the basepaths could be huge for the Rangers as Jaso is not good at blocking stolen base attempts.

Advantage: Texas

Outfield

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Desmond Jennings	TBR	10	44	25	20	0.303	0.259	0.356	0.449	0.805	0.361	2.4
B.J. Upton	TBR	23	82	81	36	0.298	0.243	0.331	0.429	0.760	0.337	4.1
Matt Joyce	TBR	19	69	75	13	0.317	0.277	0.347	0.478	0.825	0.357	3.8
Nelson Cruz	TX	29	64	87	9	0.288	0.263	0.312	0.509	0.821	0.352	1.6
Josh Hamilton	TX	25	80	94	8	0.317	0.298	0.346	0.536	0.882	0.371	4.2
David Murphy	TX	11	46	46	11	0.299	0.275	0.328	0.401	0.729	0.319	1.1

Offensively, the two teams have very similar outfields. Hamilton and Cruz give Texas a distinct power advantage, but Tampa's three outfielders are good at getting on base and are stolen base threats. The big advantage for Tampa, however, is defense. Tampa has one of the better outfields in the game, whereas Texas, although not fielding a team of slouches, simply does not match up.

Advantage: Tampa

Designated Hitter

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Johnny Damon	TBR	16	79	73	19	0.284	0.261	0.326	0.418	0.744	0.328	1.5
Mitch Moreland	TX	16	60	51	2	0.290	0.259	0.320	0.414	0.734	0.317	0.4

Very similar numbers offensively. Damon gives you an advantage with good baserunning, but Moreland can slot over to first, which gives Texas flexibility.

Advantage: Tampa...slightly

Bench

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Kelly Shoppach	TBR	11	23	22	0	0.212	0.176	0.268	0.339	0.607	0.274	1.1
Reid Brignac	TBR	1	18	15	3	0.254	0.193	0.227	0.221	0.448	0.203	-1.1
Elliot Johnson	TBR	4	20	17	6	0.260	0.194	0.257	0.338	0.595	0.252	0.5
Sam Fuld	TBR	3	41	27	20	0.276	0.240	0.313	0.360	0.673	0.303	1.9
Yorvit Torrealba	TX	7	40	37	0	0.310	0.273	0.306	0.399	0.705	0.306	1.1
Craig Gentry	TX	1	26	13	18	0.330	0.271	0.347	0.346	0.693	0.341	1.8
Endy Chavez	TX	5	37	27	10	0.321	0.301	0.323	0.426	0.749	0.325	1.5
Andres Blanco	TX	2	9	3	0	0.250	0.224	0.263	0.342	0.605	0.261	-0.3

The benches for these two teams are essentially a wash. Shoppach is a decent power, no average catcher with good defensive ability, whereas Torrealba is strictly an offensive option. The infielders are a question mark. Brignac has not had a good season at all, but Gentry has a high BABIP so his numbers could be inflated. Fuld gives Tampa an advantage in the outfield, but Chavez has had a good year and is a great defensive outfielder.

Advantage: Push

Starting Rotation

Name	Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Matt Moore	TBR	1	0	1	5	19.8	1.8	0	-0.77	0.4
James Shields	TBR	16	12	33	249.1	8.12	2.35	2.82	3.42	4.9
Jeremy Hellickson	TBR	13	10	29	189	5.57	3.43	2.95	4.44	1.4
David Price	TBR	12	13	34	224.1	8.75	2.53	3.49	3.32	4.7
C.J. Wilson	TX	16	7	34	223.1	8.3	2.98	2.94	3.24	5.9
Colby Lewis	TX	14	10	32	200.1	7.59	2.52	4.4	4.54	2.3
Matt Harrison	TX	14	9	30	183.2	6.17	2.79	3.43	3.52	4.2
Derek Holland	TX	16	5	32	198	7.36	3.05	3.95	3.94	3.6

Texas has probably the best starting pitcher with CJ Wilson, however Tampa's 1-2 of Shields and Price is better than Texas with Wilson and Harrison. Starting Matt Moore is a very smart move on Joe Maddon's part as he has been striking out a ton of guys down the stretch and the Texas hitters haven't seen him. Depending on Moore's results, the Rays have the better rotation.

Advantage: Tampa

Bullpen

Name	Team	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
Kyle Farnsworth	TBR	25	63	57.2	7.96	1.87	2.18	3.16
Joel Peralta	TBR	6	71	67.2	8.11	2.39	2.93	3.37
Juan Cruz	TBR	0	56	48.2	8.51	5.18	3.88	4.2
Jeff Niemann	TBR			135.1	6.98	2.46	4.06	4.13
Wade Davis	TBR			52.2	6.32	3.59	3.42	3.61
Andy Sonnanstine	TBR			184	5.14	3.08	4.45	4.67
Cesar Ramos	TBR	0	59	43.2	6.39	5.15	3.92	4.72
Adam Russell	TBR	0	36	32.2	3.58	5.51	3.03	5.14
Neftali Feliz	TX	32	64	62.1	7.8	4.33	2.74	3.57
Mike Adams	TX	1	27	25.2	8.77	1.75	2.1	3.18
Koji Uehara	TX	0	22	18	11.5	0.5	4	4.25
Mike Gonzalez	TX	0	7	7	6.43	3.86	5.14	2.88
Darren Oliver	TX	2	61	51	7.76	1.94	2.29	2.77
Mark Lowe	TX	1	52	45	8.4	3.8	3.8	4.16
Yoshinori Tateyama	TX	1	39	44	8.8	2.25	4.5	4.32
Alexi Ogando	TX			167	6.68	2.32	3.56	3.68

Texas 7-8-9 combination of Gonzalez, Uehara, and Feliz is phenomenal and allows Texas to only need six innings out of their starters. Tampa has a good set-up man and closer with Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth but lack the seventh inning bridge arm that Texas has. Niemann, Davis, and Sonnanstine offer some flexibility as they are starters by trade, but I think the advantage here belongs to the Rangers.

Advantage: Rangers

Conclusion:

Overall, the Rangers have one of the deepest teams in the playoffs. As long as everyone produces, they have a good chance of making it back to the world series. I like them to win this series, but with the Rays late-inning heroics and strong starting staff, I'll say that Texas wins this ALCS rematch in 5 games.

Prediction: Texas 3-2