We Need an Enemy

As a Cardinals fan, I can comfortably say the playoffs could not have gone better on the National League side. While I always like to see the Redbirds win at home, nothing could have beat being able to see Philadelphia fans as they watched in stunned disbelief while not the Cardinals celebrated a 3-2 series win, but their star first baseman lay injured on the ground. After being counted out entering September, the Cardinals not only stormed into the playoffs by outplaying the heavily favored Atlanta Braves down the stretch, the Cardinals entered Citizen's Bank Park for a game 5 against the overwhelming World Series favorite. The only thing missing from the victory was a sense of rivalry. I personally dislike the Phillies fanbase, but, as an organization, the Cardinals have never had bad blood with Philadelphia. My satisfaction with the win, aside from getting one step closer to the World Series, was solely because I greatly dislike the Philadelphia fanbase.

The NLCS is a different story. In Milwaukee, St. Louis has a natural division rival. This isn't a rivalry based on history, however, as Milwaukee has just recently started to perform well as a team. These two teams serve as great rivals due to vastly different organizational philosophies. While the Cardinals have incorporated some playful team-building mantras like “Happy Flight,” “Do It For Torty,” and of course the faith in the rally squirrel, on the playing field they are all business. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a lot of fun on the field. Between “Beast Mode” and the untucking of the shirts, they are very loose which aids in their success.

To get a better feel for the differences between these two teams, one needs only to look at the two players I feel embody their teams' personalities. For the Cardinals, a lot of the heart and soul comes from Yadier Molina. He is a very intense competitor who takes great pride in his team and his own abilities. He'll throw a fist pump when he guns a runner out at second and is quick to express himself to players who badmouth his teammates or the organization like he did with Brandon Phillips last year. The Brewers, however, have really taken a lot of their personality this year from Nyjer Morgan. Nyjer is a player with a history of showing unstable and egotistical behavior. When he was with Washington last year, he attempted a leaping catch at the wall and threw his glove down in anger when he didn't make the catch. He thought the ball had gone over the fence for a home run.

The ball didn't go over.

As Nyjer threw a tantrum over not making the catch, the ball had actually bounced off the wall and fallen on the ground behind him. The opposing player scored an inside the park home run because of Nyjer's complete lack of awareness and disrespect for the game.

Since coming to Milwaukee this past offseason, Nyjer has been embraced as the heart and soul of the Brewers. He has developed the “Beast Mode” rally cry and embroiled himself into the blossoming Cardinals-Brewers rivalry by starting an argument with Chris Carpenter and hurling insults at Albert Pujols over Twitter. He encompasses everything that is the antithesis of the Cardinals organization. He does his talking off the field. He is a polarizing figure that the Cardinals players and fans can rally against. As one of those fans, I want the Cardinals to shut Nyjer Morgan up. I loved when the Cardinals lit Zack Greinke up after he said in an interview that he felt Carpenter's on-field intensity was fake. The Cardinals showed that Greinke's comments were just the chirpings of another Brewer.

Which is exactly what the Brewers' braggadocios talk sounds like to fans of the game. The Cardinals are the most storied team in the National League. They have the second most World Series titles in history. They have won 17 NL pennants and seven NL Central titles. The Brewers NL Central crown this season was their first, but they have NL pennants and no World Series titles to their name. There isn't a team in the National League Central that can match the Cardinals in terms of legacy and prestige, but every year a new contender puts together a good season and challenges the throne. This season, though, the Brewers simply don't have the resume to back up all of their talk. If they want a rivalry with the Cardinals, they have to do more than just win the NL Central and beat St Louis in the NLCS. The Cubs have a far better history than the Brewers and even they struggle to claim they have a rivalry with St Louis. The Brewers don't have the credentials to attack the alpha wolf in the National League.

This season, though, they have chirped. They have chattered. They have thrown rocks at the walls of Busch stadium begging for the Cardinals to take notice. At the very least, they got my attention. I hate Nyjer Morgan and his big talk Twitter insults. How was that double “Alberta” hit over your head? I hate Prince Fielder and his veggie burger filled gut. Not like he matters since he can't wait for this series to be over so he can get the hell out of Milwaukee. I hate Ryan Braun, but only because he's too good to play on this joke of a team. I hate Zack Greinke. Who are you to call Chris Carpenter's personality fake when you're on the same team as “Tony Plush”. I hate K-Rod's fist pump. How'd that vesting option for games finished work out for you? I hate the Brewers more than I've ever hated the Chicago Cubs. You want a rivalry, Milwaukee? Try to keep up. This series is your first lesson in respecting your superiors.

NLDS preview: Cardinals vs Phillies

Again, I apologize for being late with the National League. This series will obviously be hard to remain impartial about given my support of the St Louis Cardinals, but we'll look at the numbers to get a clearer picture.

Catcher

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Carlos Ruiz	PHI	6	49	40	1	0.308	0.283	0.371	0.383	0.754	0.332	2.8
Yadier Molina	STL	14	55	65	4	0.311	0.305	0.349	0.465	0.814	0.349	4.1

Yadi has been the best defensive catcher in the league for a few seasons now, but he is having a breakout offensive year. This gives him even more of a leg-on on Chooch who is having a pretty subpar year.
Advantage: Cardinals

First Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Ryan Howard	PHI	33	81	116	1	0.303	0.253	0.346	0.488	0.834	0.354	1.6
Albert Pujols	STL	37	105	99	9	0.277	0.299	0.366	0.541	0.907	0.385	5.1

This would be a hard match-up with Howard having a good year, so with him having a down year it's even more of a difference. Albert started the year cold and experienced a wrist injury, but still bounced back to put up the numbers we expect of him. This was his poorest offensive showing, but a poor year for Albert is a career year for most others.
Advantage: Cardinals

Second Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Chase Utley	PHI	11	54	44	14	0.269	0.259	0.344	0.425	0.769	0.344	3.9
Skip Schumaker	STL	2	34	38	0	0.321	0.283	0.333	0.351	0.684	0.300	0.6

This is a no-brainer. Skip should be a bench player. Tony's experiment starting him at second has not worked since day one, but he continues to be plugged into the starting lineup because of a decent batting average and very little else.
Advantage: Phillies

Third Base

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Placido Polanco	PHI	5	46	50	3	0.292	0.277	0.335	0.339	0.674	0.304	2.8
David Freese	STL	10	41	55	1	0.356	0.297	0.350	0.441	0.791	0.348	2.7

Very similar overall numbers for very similar players. Both of these guys have seen their seasons shortened by injury. Freese's offense and power numbers give him an advantage over Polanco, but Polanco is a much better defensive third basemen which is a huge benefit for the Phillies in a series that could come down to pitching.
Advantage: Push

Shortstop

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	16	87	63	30	0.275	0.268	0.338	0.399	0.737	0.329	3.8
Rafael Furcal	STL	7	29	16	4	0.250	0.255	0.316	0.418	0.734	0.323	0.9

On paper this is a huge advantage for the Phillies, but these stats are a small sample-size for Furcal given the fact that a lot of his season has been lost to injury. He had a little bit of pop in his bat when he first came to the Cardinals and could be a big factor in this series if he is healthy and plays to his full ability.
Advantage: Phillies

Outfield

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Raul Ibanez	PHI	20	65	84	2	0.268	0.245	0.289	0.419	0.708	0.306	-1.3
Shane Victorino	PHI	17	95	61	19	0.292	0.279	0.355	0.491	0.846	0.372	5.9
Hunter Pence	PHI	11	35	35	1	0.348	0.324	0.394	0.560	0.954	0.405	2.6
Allen Craig	STL	11	33	40	5	0.344	0.315	0.362	0.555	0.917	0.399	2.6
Jon Jay	STL	10	56	37	6	0.340	0.297	0.344	0.424	0.768	0.333	2.8
Lance Berkman	STL	31	90	94	2	0.315	0.301	0.412	0.547	0.959	0.402	5

This looks a lot better for the Cardinals with Holliday in left-field, but he is still feeling the effects of the injury he experienced down the stretch. Craig has shown to be a solid substitute and the Cardinals have actually had a more potent offense with him playing instead of Holliday. Even with Holliday on the bench, Berkman matches up with Victorino, and Jay and Craig are slightly better than Pence and Ibanez on paper. As the first game showed, however, Ibanez still has a lot of power in his bat and Pence has a ton of upside.
Advantage: Push, with a lean towards the Cardinals if Holliday starts games

Bench

Name	Team	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Brian Schneider	PHI	2	11	9	0	0.225	0.176	0.246	0.256	0.502	0.227	-0.9
Ross Gload	PHI	0	3	8	0	0.322	0.257	0.276	0.327	0.603	0.266	-0.3
Wilson Valdez	PHI	1	39	30	3	0.288	0.249	0.294	0.341	0.635	0.274	0
Michael Martinez	PHI	3	25	24	3	0.220	0.196	0.258	0.282	0.540	0.247	-0.4
Ben Francisco	PHI	6	24	34	4	0.268	0.244	0.340	0.364	0.704	0.312	-0.1
John Mayberry	PHI	15	37	49	8	0.293	0.273	0.341	0.513	0.854	0.369	2.5
Gerald Laird	STL	1	11	12	1	0.276	0.232	0.302	0.358	0.660	0.279	0.1
Daniel Descalso	STL	1	35	28	2	0.323	0.264	0.334	0.353	0.687	0.296	0.5
Nick Punto	STL	1	21	20	1	0.319	0.278	0.388	0.421	0.809	0.350	1.8
Ryan Theriot	STL	1	46	47	4	0.296	0.271	0.321	0.342	0.663	0.292	0.7
Adron Chambers	STL	0	2	4	0	0.429	0.375	0.375	0.625	1.000	0.422	-0.1
Matt Holliday	STL	22	83	75	2	0.330	0.296	0.388	0.525	0.913	0.393	5

The two big names here are Holliday and Mayberry. Holliday is a starter and is only listed on the bench because of his injury. Having him available to pinch-hit is huge for the Cardinals. Mayberry was red hot down the stretch and can play at multiple positions, so the Phils will try to get his bat into the lineup. Aside from Mayberry, the Phillies bench is pretty weak. There are good defensive subs in Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez, but not much in the way of offense. The Cardinals have a lot of flexibility with Descalso, Punto, and Theriot all being able to play everywhere on the infield. Adron Chambers could be an X factor and is actually a surprise to see on the roster.
Advantage: Cardinals

Starting Rotation

Name	Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Roy Halladay	PHI	19	6	32	233.2	8.47	1.35	2.35	2.2	8.2
Cliff Lee	PHI	17	8	32	232.2	9.21	1.62	2.4	2.6	6.7
Cole Hamels	PHI	14	9	31	216	8.08	1.83	2.79	3.05	4.9
Roy Oswalt	PHI	9	10	23	139	6.02	2.14	3.69	3.44	2.5
Kyle Lohse	STL	14	8	30	188.1	5.3	2.01	3.39	3.67	2.5
Chris Carpenter	STL	11	9	34	237.1	7.24	2.09	3.45	3.06	5
Jaime Garcia	STL	13	7	32	194.2	7.21	2.31	3.56	3.23	3.6
Edwin Jackson	STL	5	2	12	78	5.88	2.65	3.58	4.01	0.7

Yikes! The Cardinals starters actually have good numbers against the Phillies this season in small sample sizes, but overall the Phillies obviously have the stronger rotation with three Cy Young candidates in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, and a known commodity in Oswalt. Tony LaRussa is doing what he can to match up with the Phillies by starting Carpenter in game 2 and Jaime in game 3. Jaime's home-road splits lean heavily towards home starts, so starting Carp on short rest for game 2 and pushing Jaime back is a very smart move on paper. Also, you would think Carpenter would be available for game 5 if necessary.
Advantage: Phillies

Bullpen:

Name	Team	SV	G	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
Ryan Madson	PHI	32	62	60.2	9.2	2.37	2.37	2.25
Antonio Bastardo	PHI	8	64	58	10.86	4.03	2.64	3.3
Brad Lidge	PHI	1	25	19.1	10.71	6.05	1.4	2.82
Michael Stutes	PHI	0	57	62	8.42	4.06	3.63	4.07
Vance Worley	PHI	0	25	131.2	8.13	3.14	3.01	3.32
Joe Blanton	PHI	0	11	41.1	7.62	1.96	5.01	3.63
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	0	34	114.2	4.63	2.35	3.22	4.55
Jason Motte	STL	9	78	68	8.34	2.12	2.25	2.48
Fernando Salas	STL	24	68	75	9	2.52	2.28	3.16
Octavio Dotel	STL	2	29	24.2	11.68	1.82	3.28	1.57
Marc Rzepczynski	STL	0	28	22.2	11.12	4.37	3.97	2.72
Mitchell Boggs	STL	4	51	60.2	7.12	3.12	3.56	3.44
Arthur Rhodes	STL	0	19	8.2	6.23	3.12	4.15	5.68
Jake Westbrook	STL	0	33	183.1	5.11	3.58	4.66	4.25

Not having Kyle McClellan available hurts the Cardinals. They still have a strong back of the bullpen with Dotel, Salas, and Motte. The weak link, in my opinion is Arthur Rhodes. Facing a lineup with five good lefty hitters, a lefty specialist becomes important. Rhodes's numbers are not at all solid. I think if the Cards get beat in the late innings, it's going to be by the lefty hitters. The Phillies back of the bullpen of Madson, Bastardo, and Lidge is solid, but the rest of their pen is beatable. If the Cardinals can knock the starters out early, they greatly improve their chances in the series.
Advantage: Phillies

It appears that the Cardinals have an offensive advantage as their National League leading OPS shows, but they may not have the arms to compete with Philadelphia. I want them to win, but I'm not sure the matchup plays in their favor.

Prediction: Phillies in 4