Sunday, October 2, 2011

NLDS Preview: Brewers vs Diamondbacks

I apologize for my NL previews being late, but I've been busy at work. This series is already a game in and looks like it could be a pitcher's duel. Let's see what the numbers show:

Catcher
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Jonathan Lucroy MIL 12 45 59 2 0.317 0.265 0.313 0.391 0.704 0.301 1.9
Miguel Montero AZ 18 65 86 1 0.317 0.282 0.351 0.469 0.820 0.351 4.3

Lucroy hits for decent average and shows a little bit of power, but Montero is superior in the offensive game. With both teams having solid pitching staffs, the offensive production of Montero could be really beneficial to the Diamondbacks.
Advantage: Diamondbacks

First Base

Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Prince Fielder MIL 38 95 120 1 0.306 0.299 0.415 0.566 0.981 0.408 5.5
Lyle Overbay AZ 1 3 10 1 0.367 0.286 0.388 0.452 0.840 0.371 0.2

Ugh! Prince Fielder is an MVP candidate and one of the game's elite hitters. Lyle Overbay is....Lyle Overbay. Clear win here.
Advantage: Brewers

Second Base
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Rickie Weeks MIL 20 77 49 9 0.310 0.269 0.350 0.468 0.818 0.358 3.7
Aaron Hill AZ 2 23 16 5 0.356 0.315 0.386 0.492 0.878 0.376 1.6

Picking up Hill was a good move for the Diamondbacks, as Kelly Johnson was failing to repeat his performance from last season. Hill has a good average and solid on-base percentage, but Weeks has a little more pop in his bat.
Advantage: Brewers

Third Base
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Jerry Hairston MIL 1 18 7 1 0.308 0.274 0.348 0.379 0.727 0.327 0.8
Ryan Roberts AZ 19 86 65 18 0.275 0.249 0.341 0.427 0.768 0.338 3.6

This is the first clear win in the infield for the Diamondbacks. Hairston is a bench player, but is being used as a starter since McGehee has played poorly this year. Roberts has shown good power numbers this year, but is very streaky.
Advantage: Diamondbacks

Shortstop
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Yuniesky Betancourt MIL 13 51 68 4 0.259 0.252 0.271 0.381 0.652 0.278 0.5
Willie Bloomquist AZ 4 44 26 20 0.300 0.266 0.317 0.340 0.657 0.291 0.3

Did someone call the garbage man? Yuniesky was a throw-in in the deal for Zack Greinke, but the Brewers gave u Alcides Escobar so are forced to start him. The Diamondbacks lost Stephen Drew and are now starting Bloomquist. These are two bench players starting in the playoffs. Ugh!
Advantage: Push

Outfield
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Ryan Braun MIL 33 109 111 33 0.350 0.332 0.397 0.597 0.994 0.433 7.8
Nyjer Morgan MIL 4 61 37 13 0.362 0.304 0.357 0.421 0.778 0.346 4
Corey Hart MIL 26 80 63 7 0.323 0.285 0.356 0.510 0.866 0.373 4.2
Gerardo Parra AZ 8 55 46 15 0.342 0.292 0.357 0.427 0.784 0.340 2.8
Chris Young AZ 20 89 71 22 0.275 0.236 0.331 0.420 0.751 0.330 4.6
Justin Upton AZ 31 105 88 21 0.319 0.289 0.369 0.529 0.898 0.385 6.4

The Brewers have the best outfielder in Braun, but the Dbacks answer that with Justin Upton. Chryis Young is slightly better than Corey Hart. The deciding factor is Nyjer Morgan's strong showing this year. Tony Plush finally put together a good season without having a major blowup on the field. We'll see if he can make it through the playoffs without throwing a temper tantrum.
Advantage: Brewers

Bench
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
George Kottaras MIL 5 15 17 0 0.284 0.252 0.311 0.459 0.770 0.330 0.7
Mark Kotsay MIL 3 18 31 3 0.294 0.270 0.329 0.373 0.702 0.311 0.2
Casey McGehee MIL 13 46 67 0 0.249 0.223 0.280 0.346 0.626 0.272 0.3
Craig Counsell MIL 1 19 9 2 0.197 0.178 0.280 0.223 0.503 0.234 0.5
Taylor Green MIL 0 2 1 0 0.323 0.270 0.270 0.351 0.621 0.270 0.1
Carlos Gomez MIL 8 37 24 16 0.273 0.225 0.276 0.403 0.679 0.307 2
Henry Blanco AZ 8 12 12 0 0.239 0.250 0.330 0.540 0.870 0.366 1.2
Paul Goldschmidt AZ 8 28 26 4 0.323 0.250 0.333 0.474 0.807 0.356 0.6
John McDonald AZ 0 2 2 0 0.200 0.169 0.222 0.203 0.425 0.197 0
Sean Burroughs AZ 1 8 8 1 0.305 0.273 0.289 0.336 0.625 0.278 0
Geoff Blum AZ 2 8 10 0 0.237 0.224 0.309 0.408 0.717 0.310 0.3
Collin Cowgill AZ 1 8 9 4 0.333 0.239 0.300 0.304 0.604 0.270 0.3

The only player in this mess that matters is Paul Goldschmidt. He is Arizona's first basemen of the future and could end up starting over Overbay and being a real X factor. In other news, it seems like Craig Counsell is always on a playoff team!
Advantage: Diamondbacks

Starting Rotation
Name Team W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR
Yovani Gallardo MIL 17 10 33 207.1 8.99 2.56 3.52 3.59 3.1
Zack Greinke MIL 16 6 28 171.2 10.54 2.36 3.83 2.98 3.9
Shaun Marcum MIL 13 7 33 200.2 7.09 2.56 3.54 3.73 2.7
Randy Wolf MIL 13 10 33 212.1 5.68 2.8 3.69 4.29 1.4
Ian Kennedy AZ 21 4 33 222 8.03 2.23 2.88 3.22 5
Daniel Hudson AZ 16 12 33 222 6.85 2.03 3.49 3.28 4.9
Josh Collmenter AZ 10 10 24 154.1 5.83 1.63 3.38 3.8 2.2
Joe Saunders AZ 12 13 33 212 4.58 2.84 3.69 4.78 1

We've already seen the great matchup between Kennedy and Gallardo. Kennedy is the best pitcher on either team and is a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Daniel Hudson is the second best. These two are one of the best 1-2 punches in the playoffs and on paper are better than Gallardo and Greinke. Marcum gives the Brewers a slight edge over the rookie Collmenter and Wolf is a notch better than Saunders. I can see this going to game 5 and I think Kennedy wins the rematch.
Advantage: Diamondbacks

Bullpen
Name Team SV G IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
John Axford MIL 46 74 73.2 10.51 3.05 1.95 2.41
Francisco Rodriguez MIL 0 31 29 10.24 3.1 1.86 2.23
Kameron Loe MIL 1 72 72 7.63 2 3.5 2.8
LaTroy Hawkins MIL 0 52 48.1 5.21 1.86 2.42 2.76
Takashi Saito MIL 0 30 26.2 7.76 3.04 2.03 3.4
Chris Narveson MIL 0 30 161.2 7.01 3.62 4.45 4.06
Marco Estrada MIL 0 43 92.2 8.55 2.82 4.08 3.67
J.J. Putz AZ 45 60 58 9.47 1.86 2.17 2.54
David Hernandez AZ 11 74 69.1 10 3.89 3.38 2.94
Brad Ziegler AZ 0 23 20.2 6.53 2.61 1.74 2.44
Bryan Shaw AZ 0 33 28.1 7.62 2.54 2.54 3.52
Micah Owings AZ 0 33 63 6.29 3.29 3.57 4.47
Joe Paterson AZ 1 62 34 7.41 3.97 2.91 3.44
Jarrod Parker AZ 0 1 5.2 1.59 1.59 0 3.2

Putz has had a good season as the Diamondbacks closer, but the Brewers back of the bullpen is far superior with Axford and K-Rod. The X factor here is Jarrod Parker. He's the Diamondbacks #1 prospect and has electric stuff even after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Advantage: Brewers

I think overall the Diamondbacks are overmatched offensively, have an advantage in the rotation, and are slightly inferior in the bullpen. However, their pen is full of guys that can step up and Parker could end up giving them a real edge. I see this series going the distance.

Prediction: Diamondbacks in 5

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