Saturday, October 1, 2011

ALDS: Yankees vs Tigers

Thankfully, Game 1 got delayed so I get to get my preview in before the first game ends. I will do a positional breakdown like I did with the first ALDS.

Catcher
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Russell Martin NYY 18 57 65 8 0.252 0.237 0.324 0.408 0.732 0.325 3.1
Alex Avila DET 19 63 82 3 0.366 0.295 0.389 0.506 0.895 0.383 5.5

Avila has had a great year. Coming into the season, he was looked at as a solid defensive option to give Victor some rest so he wouldn't have to catch full-time. He made things easy by hitting as well as he has, ensuring he would be an everyday player. If he can keep up his hot hitting in the playoffs, this position isn't close.
Advantage: Tigers

First Base
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Mark Teixeira NYY 39 90 111 4 0.239 0.248 0.341 0.494 0.835 0.361 4.2
Miguel Cabrera DET 30 111 105 2 0.365 0.344 0.448 0.586 1.034 0.436 7.3

These numbers are skewed slightly by Teixeira's hot streak to end the season. He has had a poor year, whereas Cabrera is a dark hose MVP candidate. Teixeira closes the gap slightly with his glove, but I still give this one to Detroit.
Advantage: Tigers

Second Base
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Robinson Cano NYY 28 104 118 8 0.316 0.302 0.349 0.533 0.882 0.375 5.6
Ryan Raburn DET 14 53 49 1 0.324 0.256 0.297 0.432 0.729 0.314 1.2

Raburn had a very hot start to the season but has cooled off considerably. Cano was an MVP candidate last year and put up similar numbers this season. He is developing into an elite second basemen.
Advantage: New York

Third Base
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Alex Rodriguez NYY 16 67 62 4 0.311 0.276 0.362 0.461 0.823 0.361 4.2
Brandon Inge DET 3 29 23 1 0.256 0.197 0.265 0.283 0.548 0.247 -0.4

But, Justin, A-Rod is a slouch in the playoffs. Pass! This one isn't even close.
Advantage: New York

Shortstop
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Derek Jeter NYY 6 84 61 16 0.336 0.297 0.355 0.388 0.743 0.332 2.3
Jhonny Peralta DET 21 68 86 0 0.325 0.299 0.345 0.478 0.823 0.353 5.2

Peralta had a great season and earned the contract extension Detroit signed him to. Jeter, on the other hand, continued his decline and made New York look even more foolish for giving him a deal that was easily two years longer than any other team would have considered.
Advantage: Tigers

Outfield
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Brett Gardner NYY 7 87 36 49 0.303 0.259 0.345 0.369 0.714 0.330 5.1
Curtis Granderson NYY 41 136 119 25 0.295 0.262 0.364 0.552 0.916 0.394 7
Nick Swisher NYY 23 81 85 2 0.295 0.260 0.374 0.449 0.823 0.358 3.8
Delmon Young DET 8 28 32 0 0.286 0.274 0.298 0.458 0.756 0.325 0.1
Austin Jackson DET 10 90 45 22 0.340 0.249 0.317 0.374 0.691 0.309 2.8
Magglio Ordonez DET 5 33 32 2 0.275 0.255 0.303 0.331 0.634 0.283 -1

The Yankees have the best outfield player in Granderson, who is another dark horse MVP candidate. Detroit's best outfielder is Jackson and most of his value is derived from his defense. Brennan Boesch would give them a better option in right field, but he hasn't been activated from the DL yet, so Magglio gets the start. This could really be a deciding area in this series.
Advantage: New York

Designated Hitter
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Jorge Posada NYY 14 34 44 0 0.262 0.235 0.315 0.398 0.713 0.309 -0.4
Victor Martinez DET 12 76 103 1 0.343 0.330 0.380 0.470 0.850 0.368 2.9

Two former starting catchers represent the designated hitters for these two playoff teams. Jorge's best years are way behind him and he will probably retire at the end of this year. Victor, however, had a strong first season with the Tigers and earned year one of his four year deal. He gives the Tigers a good offensive weapon, whereas Posada represents a void.
Advantage: Tigers

Bench
Name Team HR R RBI SB BABIP AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Jesus Montero NYY 4 9 12 0 0.400 0.328 0.406 0.590 0.996 0.421 0.6
Eric Chavez NYY 2 16 26 0 0.320 0.263 0.320 0.356 0.676 0.294 0.6
Eduardo Nunez NYY 5 38 30 22 0.287 0.265 0.313 0.385 0.698 0.313 -0.6
Chris Dickerson NYY 1 9 7 4 0.364 0.260 0.296 0.360 0.656 0.307 0.3
Andruw Jones NYY 13 27 33 0 0.296 0.247 0.356 0.495 0.851 0.371 1.4
Omir Santos DET 0 1 0 0 0.278 0.227 0.227 0.227 0.454 0.202 -0.1
Wilson Betemit DET 5 11 19 1 0.429 0.292 0.346 0.525 0.871 0.373 0.5
Don Kelly DET 7 35 28 2 0.256 0.245 0.291 0.381 0.672 0.296 0.6
Ramon Santiago DET 5 29 30 0 0.283 0.260 0.311 0.384 0.695 0.305 1.4
Andy Dirks DET 7 34 28 5 0.273 0.251 0.296 0.406 0.702 0.308 0.4

Jesus Montero has the best upside and could actually be a big name to watch in the playoffs. The benches are really a wash, otherwise.
Advantage: New York, if Jesus gets playing time

Starting Rotation
Name Team W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR
CC Sabathia NYY 19 8 33 237.1 8.72 2.31 3 2.88 7.1
Ivan Nova NYY 16 4 27 165.1 5.33 3.1 3.7 4.01 2.7
Freddy Garcia NYY 12 8 25 146.2 5.89 2.76 3.62 4.12 2.2
Justin Verlander DET 24 5 34 251 8.96 2.04 2.4 2.99 7
Doug Fister DET 8 1 10 70.1 7.29 0.64 1.79 2.49 2.4
Max Scherzer DET 15 9 33 195 8.03 2.58 4.43 4.14 2.7
Rick Porcello DET 14 9 31 182 5.14 2.27 4.75 4.06 2.7

Both of these rotation are incredibly top heavy. New York is employing a three man rotation due more to lack of depth as opposed to the skill of their three starters. Sabathia is a Cy Young candidate and Nova a Rookie of the Year candidate, but Verlander has the best chance to be a deciding factor. If he continues the dominance he displayed during the season, he could win two starts for the Tigers. Fister has been fantastic since being traded to the Tigers, and Scherzer and Porcello have the ability to either have a dominating game or get rocked. Due to overall depth, the advantage has to go to the Tigers.
Advantage: Tigers

Bullpen
Name Team SV G IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
Mariano Rivera NYY 44 64 61.1 8.8 1.17 1.91 2.19
Bartolo Colon NYY 0 29 164.1 7.39 2.19 4 3.83
David Robertson NYY 1 70 66.2 13.5 4.73 1.08 1.84
Rafael Soriano NYY 2 42 39.1 8.24 4.12 4.12 3.97
Cory Wade NYY 0 40 39.2 6.81 1.82 2.04 3.76
Boone Logan NYY 0 64 41.2 9.94 2.81 3.46 3.29
Phil Hughes NYY 0 17 74.2 5.67 3.25 5.79 4.58
Luis Ayala NYY 0 52 56 6.27 3.21 2.09 4.19
A.J. Burnett NYY 0 33 190.1 8.18 3.92 5.15 4.77
Jose Valverde DET 49 75 72.1 8.59 4.23 2.24 3.55
Joaquin Benoit DET 2 66 61 9.3 2.51 2.95 2.96
Al Alburquerque DET 0 41 43.1 13.92 6.02 1.87 2.08
Phil Coke DET 1 48 108.2 5.71 3.31 4.47 3.57
Ryan Perry DET 0 36 37 5.84 5.11 5.35 3.94
Daniel Schlereth DET 0 49 49 8.08 5.69 3.49 5.03
Brad Penny DET 0 31 181.2 3.67 3.07 5.3 5.02

The Yankees have a good back of the bullpen, but the Tigers may have the most underrated bullpen in the league. Jose Valverde was perfect in save situations and strikes out almost one guy per inning. Joaquin Benoit is actually more of a power pitcher than Valverde and continued his great showing from last year. Al Albuquerque and Daniel Schlereth also give the Tigers the ability to overpower most offenses. With the strength of their bullpen, the Tigers really cut each game down to six innings.
Advantage: Tigers

This was one series that looking at the numbers really changed my mind. The Yankees have the bigger names and are heavily favored, but the Tigers have a much deeper team on paper.

Prediction: Tigers win in 4

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